Global Carbon Project expects fossil carbon dioxide emissions to fall by about 0.4% in 2026, DN reports as COP31 opens. The forecast follows a 1.2% increase last year, but its drivers matter as much as the headline figure.
Rapid growth in solar and wind power, alongside electric vehicles, is part of the explanation, according to DN’s account of the researchers’ report and a Nature Climate Change study. Those technologies now offset roughly two-thirds of the emissions associated with rising energy use. That is material evidence that clean technology is curbing emissions growth.
But the forecast also incorporates lower oil use after the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Researchers had expected oil emissions to rise by about 1% in 2026; they now estimate a 1.9% fall. Cicero research director Glen Peters told DN that disrupted oil supply and reduced demand largely explain the reversal.
The reported evidence does not assign a share of the overall 0.4% decline to renewable growth or to the oil shock. Treating both as the same kind of progress would blur an important distinction: clean-energy deployment can be extended through investment, while conflict-related disruption is not a climate policy.
Corinne Le Quéré says the projected decline is insufficient to put global emissions on a sustained downward path and calls for more investment in clean technology. The forecast is therefore a useful signal of renewable momentum, but its mixed causes make it a weak basis for declaring a durable emissions turn.
Sources
- Dagens Nyheter · Source date: 2026-11-10
Independent editorial content. WUA is not affiliated with any political party. 2026-11-10