SVIMEZ says Southern Italy is set to lose its narrow growth lead over the Centre-North in 2027, turning a favourable 2026 comparison into a test of whether the recovery can last. In its report released on 10 November, the association forecasts GDP growth of 0.9% in the South in 2026, compared with 0.8% in central and northern Italy. For 2027, it forecasts 0.5% growth in the South and 0.6% in the Centre-North.
SVIMEZ attributes much of that projected shift to the gradual exhaustion of the PNRR's extraordinary boost. It forecasts investment growth in the South slowing from 6% in 2026 to 0.8% in 2027, versus 1.8% in the Centre-North. Those are projections, but they make the 2026 lead too slight to stand alone as evidence of durable convergence.
The report places that outlook beside a longer-running demographic pressure. SVIMEZ reports that the South lost about 154,000 people aged 25 to 34 in migration exchanges with the Centre-North between 2021 and 2025. The figure cannot establish why people moved or assign the outflow to a particular policy. It does, however, raise the stakes of weaker expected investment growth: sustained convergence requires places where young adults can stay and build opportunities.
Southern Italy would still grow in 2027 under SVIMEZ's forecast, rather than contract. Its 2026 advantage also remains meaningful, however small. The report's sharper message is that the durability of the recovery should be judged beyond a single year's GDP ranking, especially as PNRR-linked momentum recedes.
Sources
- ANSA · Top news · Source date: 2026-11-10
Independent editorial content. WUA is not affiliated with any political party. 2026-11-10