Spain’s CIS pre-election macro-survey puts the PSOE ahead and does not produce an absolute majority for the combined PP and Vox bloc. That is a consequential signal at the start of the 29 November campaign, but its political use is to reshape the argument over parliamentary alliances, not to settle the election in advance.
ElDiario.es reports that the study, based on more than 45,000 interviews, gives the PSOE 33.3% of voting intention, the PP 25.5% and Vox 18.4%. The newspaper also reports that even the upper end of the survey’s seat range leaves PP and Vox well short of the 176 seats required for an absolute majority.
That projection challenges a campaign narrative built on the assumption that the two right-wing parties can automatically combine to govern. Were the CIS scenario reflected at the ballot box, Alberto Núñez Feijóo could not rely on that bloc alone to reach La Moncloa. But the survey does not, by itself, guarantee a renewed progressive government either: the available excerpt does not provide the full seat distribution or establish every possible parliamentary arrangement.
Fieldwork ran from 7 to 30 October, before the formal campaign began. ElDiario.es says the result differs from other polls, which is the central reason to resist treating it as a forecast. It is a measurement from a particular fieldwork period and estimation model, rather than an early election result.
The immediate development is therefore narrower but important: the CIS has put a specific no-majority scenario for PP and Vox into the opening contest. From Thursday, parties will compete over the factors a poll cannot close off, including turnout, voter movement and post-election alliances.
Sources
- elDiario.es · Source date: 2026-11-12
Independent editorial content. WUA is not affiliated with any political party. 2026-11-12