The latest United Surveys by IBRiS poll complicates the arithmetic on Poland’s right, but it does not create a governing majority. PiS was placed at 15.5%, just 1.5 percentage points ahead of Confederation at 14%. That narrowing, combined with Rozwój Plus clearing the threshold in the poll, matters more than the simple fact of Civic Coalition remaining first.
The survey, conducted for Wirtualna Polska, put Civic Coalition at 30%, PiS at 15.5% and Confederation at 14%. Confederation of the Polish Crown was on 9.1%, the Left on 6.8% and Rozwój Plus on 6.1%. Polsat News reported that PiS fell 2.7 points from the previous poll by the same firm, while Civic Coalition rose 2.8 points.
The most significant political implication is Rozwój Plus appearing above the threshold. Polsat News reported a Wirtualna Polska seat simulation in which a potential PiS, Rozwój Plus, Confederation and Confederation of the Polish Crown combination would hold 238 seats. But that is a projection calculated with Prof. Jarosław Flis’s method, not an election result or evidence of an agreed coalition.
That distinction is decisive. Earlier disputes over a joint right-wing list do not establish that the parties are ready to govern together. The poll suggests that competition between PiS and Confederation may become more consequential, and that a smaller grouping could gain leverage in majority talks. It does not show whether those parties could agree on a programme, offices or cooperation itself.
The survey was conducted on 6–9 November through CATI and CAWI methods on a representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles. A single poll, without the full questionnaire or margin of error in the supplied material, cannot establish a durable trend. It does provide a concrete warning against easy conclusions: with support spread across several parties, a future majority may depend less on the poll leader than on whether several parties can turn electoral arithmetic into an actual agreement.
Sources
- Polsat News · Source date: 2026-11-13
Independent editorial content. WUA is not affiliated with any political party. 2026-11-13