Codacons’ forecast of EUR 4.3 billion in Italian Black Friday turnover does not, by itself, show that households have gained purchasing power. The figure is the consumer association’s projection for this year, and it may chiefly describe when Christmas spending is being concentrated.
Codacons expects turnover to rise 7% from 2025 and says three out of four Black Friday shoppers will include Christmas gifts in their purchases. The association explicitly links the appeal of late-November promotions to changing shopping habits and household coping strategies, rather than to greater wealth or spending capacity. That distinction matters: buying a planned gift in November can lift Black Friday turnover without increasing the total amount a household can afford to spend.
The forecast still points to a concrete shift in behaviour. For many households, promotions appear to have become a planning point for purchases they already expect to make. Clothing, footwear and accessories lead the preferences reported by Codacons, followed by electronics, small household appliances and personal-care products. More than 60% of purchases are expected online, according to the same projection.
A 7% increase could indicate livelier demand during the promotion period. But the available material cannot separate price changes, quantities bought, spending moved from December into November, and genuinely additional expenditure. It also provides no official retail-sales, income or inflation data with which to treat the forecast as a national measure of purchasing power.
Codacons also says about half of Italian consumers use AI-based tools to search for products, compare features and prices, and find offers. Convenience does not remove the downside: the association warns that such tools can also make counterfeit sites, fake reviews and phishing attempts more convincing. For now, the clearest message in the forecast is the growing role of promotions in planning Christmas gifts, not a demonstrated recovery in household spending power.
Sources
- ANSA · Top news · Source date: 2026-11-14
Independent editorial content. WUA is not affiliated with any political party. 2026-11-14