A hypothetical joint list of PiS, Rozwój Plus, Konfederacja and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej would win 46.6% support and, under the reported seat model, 242 seats in the Sejm. That is a meaningful prompt for Poland’s debate over right-wing consolidation, but it is not evidence that a governing majority has been assembled.
The United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska, reported by Polsat News on 14 November, asked respondents to choose in a scenario built around two large blocs. The opposing list, grouping Civic Coalition, PSL, Poland 2050 and the New Left, received 41.3%. Razem, running separately in the scenario, received 5.8%, while 6.3% selected “don’t know/difficult to say”.
The useful political conclusion is narrower than a claim that the right already has a majority. Under the poll’s stated assumption of one list, the four right-wing parties drew more support than the October 15 coalition bloc. That puts a concrete number on the electoral incentive to consider cooperation, particularly after a separate standard party poll by the same pollster placed PiS on 15.5% and Konfederacja on 14%.
But the reported 242 seats are not an election result or an agreement among the parties. Polsat News says the seat distribution was calculated using a calculator and the approximation model of Professor Jarosław Flis. The figure therefore translates polling responses into seats under a set of modelling assumptions. It cannot establish that the four parties will run together, agree a programme, settle candidate places or govern together afterward.
That distinction is central. A shared-list proposal can change voters’ choices, party bargaining and campaign dynamics in ways a single hypothetical question cannot capture. The poll was conducted from 6 to 9 November through online and computer-assisted telephone interviews on a representative sample of 1,000 adults. The supplied report does not include the full questionnaire, weighting details or the model’s full parameters.
The poll gives the right a specific reason to test the value of consolidation. It does not turn a projected 242 seats into an existing political majority.
Sources
- Polsat News · Source date: 2026-11-14
Independent editorial content. WUA is not affiliated with any political party. 2026-11-14
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